Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

Data Source: from January 1970 to March 2024 (~54 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 10 2024

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

1.20%

1 Day

Apr 10 2024

1.70%

Current Month

April 2024

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 3 ETFs.

It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio obtained a 8.00% compound annual return, with a 12.37% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (1)

The first official book of Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2)

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%)TickerCurrencyETF NameInvestment Themes
50.00

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock MarketEquity, U.S., Large Cap
30.00

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-USEquity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
20.00

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond MarketBond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

April 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024

Live Update: Apr 10 2024

Swipe left to see all data

Chg (%)Return (%)Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
1 DayTime ET(*)Apr 20241M6M1Y5Y10Y30YMAX
(~54Y)
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio-1.20-1.702.6417.2118.699.157.918.009.56
US Inflation Adjusted return2.2515.3614.704.764.935.335.38
Components

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock Market-1.12Apr 10 2024-1.902.9022.8828.8514.1512.2310.4910.72

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US-1.36Apr 10 2024-1.243.3515.2413.666.364.605.028.17

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond Market-1.17Apr 10 2024-1.900.855.871.620.321.494.306.48

Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1970

(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio granted a 2.67% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 10.07$, with a total return of 906.52% (8.00% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.74$, with a net total return of 374.20% (5.33% annualized).

An investment of 1$, since January 1970, now would be worth 141.83$, with a total return of 14083.47% (9.56% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 17.13$, with a net total return of 1612.57% (5.38% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 31 March 2024 (~54 years)

Swipe left to see all data

Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M3M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
(~54Y)
Investment Return (%)2.646.1017.2118.695.029.157.917.738.009.56
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 2.254.9115.3614.70-0.584.764.935.015.335.38
US Inflation (%)0.381.131.613.485.634.192.842.592.543.97
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.

DRAWDOWN

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-8.74-23.18-23.18-23.18-43.68-43.68-43.68
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5262626424242
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012007 112007 112007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)3999161616
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 022009 02
Bottom to End (# months)2171717262626
End (yyyy mm)2023 122024 022024 022024 022011 042011 042011 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-33.38-33.38
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5757
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012007 112000 042000 04
Start to Bottom (# months)3999163030
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022002 092002 09
Bottom to End (# months)2171717262727
End (yyyy mm)2023 122024 022024 022024 022011 042004 122004 12
Longest negative period (# months) details 731343460118118
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 042021 042021 012021 012004 041999 051999 05
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102023 102023 102023 102009 032009 022009 02
Annualized Return (%)-2.34-1.47-0.03-0.03-0.99-0.35-0.35
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-9.60-28.12-28.12-28.12-44.61-44.61-44.62
Start to Recovery (# months) details 531*31*31*6363124
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 092021 092021 092007 112007 111973 01
Start to Bottom (# months)3131313161621
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 021974 09
Bottom to End (# months)21818184747103
End (yyyy mm)2023 12---2013 012013 011983 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-36.99
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 72
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 092021 092021 092007 112000 041973 01
Start to Bottom (# months)3131313163021
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022002 091974 09
Bottom to End (# months)21818184742103
End (yyyy mm)2023 12---2013 012006 031983 04
Longest negative period (# months) details 736*475868141151
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 042021 042019 122017 122006 021997 061970 01
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102024 032023 102022 092011 092009 021982 07
Annualized Return (%)-5.47-0.58-0.19-0.17-0.37-0.12-0.60
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress

RISK INDICATORS

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Standard Deviation (%)12.0014.3414.8412.2212.6512.3712.59
Sharpe Ratio1.120.180.490.550.500.460.44
Sortino Ratio1.600.240.650.730.660.610.60
Ulcer Index3.1010.078.366.429.8310.839.30
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation1.560.350.620.650.610.650.76
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown2.140.220.390.340.180.180.22
% Positive Months details 66%61%63%66%64%63%63%
Positive Months8223880155230414
Negative Months414224085130237

LONG TERM RETURNS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized7.9112.2612.2618.74
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized5.170.390.39
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized4.9310.3110.3112.99
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized3.35-2.14-2.55

ROLLING PERIODS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized48.2621.8718.3712.268.558.00
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.11-12.10-2.390.394.66
% Positive Periods77%84%97%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.5625.8315.868.705.336.95
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.095.48
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized45.1419.0215.9810.316.115.33
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.11-14.21-4.90-2.142.52
% Positive Periods71%78%81%95%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.5625.8315.868.705.336.95
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.095.48
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1970 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized53.6335.1129.0518.7415.1013.08
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.11-12.10-2.390.394.667.28
% Positive Periods80%89%98%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.5624.8515.047.805.284.63
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.093.42
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized49.9231.1525.1212.9910.827.76
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-38.35-14.21-5.63-2.552.524.55
% Positive Periods71%80%82%94%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.5624.8515.047.805.284.63
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.093.42
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024

Swipe left to see all data

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 31 March 2024 (~54 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

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Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

FAQs

Is the 3 fund portfolio good enough? ›

The three-fund portfolio is a sound investing approach, and you can't go wrong with it. If you set up asset allocation appropriate for your age, a three-fund portfolio will most likely perform well. I say "most likely" because nothing is guaranteed with investing, but this strategy is one of the safer options.

Is 3 ETFs enough? ›

Experts agree that for most personal investors, a portfolio comprising 5 to 10 ETFs is perfect in terms of diversification.

What is the 5 25 rule of rebalancing? ›

The 5/25 rule is a portfolio rebalancing strategy that aims to maintain a balanced investment portfolio while allowing for some flexibility to capture the potential upside of strong-performing assets. Many people attribute this rule to the legendary investor Warren Buffett.

What is the Lazy 3 fund portfolio? ›

The Three Fund Portfolio, also called the Lazy Portfolio, is a simple yet popular portfolio amongst passive index investors. It is designed to provide broad diversification across the stock and bond markets while incurring minimal costs, taxes, and overhead.

What are the disadvantages of a 3 fund portfolio? ›

Cons of a Three-Fund Portfolio

Rebalancing. A three-fund portfolio is not set-it-and-forget-it. You will still need to pay attention to your overall allocation and rebalance when necessary to stay aligned with your investment goals. No room for alternatives.

What is the average return of a three-fund portfolio? ›

As of Apr 10, 2024, the Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio returned 4.41% Year-To-Date and 8.15% of annualized return in the last 10 years.

Why are 3x ETFs risky? ›

A leveraged ETF uses derivative contracts to magnify the daily gains of an index or benchmark. These funds can offer high returns, but they also come with high risk and expenses. Funds that offer 3x leverage are particularly risky because they require higher leverage to achieve their returns.

How many S&P 500 ETFs should I own? ›

SPY, VOO and IVV are among the most popular S&P 500 ETFs. These three S&P 500 ETFs are quite similar, but may sometimes diverge in terms of costs or daily returns. Investors generally only need one S&P 500 ETF.

How much of my portfolio should be in ETFs? ›

"A newer investor with a modest portfolio may like the ease at which to acquire ETFs (trades like an equity) and the low-cost aspect of the investment. ETFs can provide an easy way to be diversified and as such, the investor may want to have 75% or more of the portfolio in ETFs."

How often should you rebalance a 60 40 portfolio? ›

A portfolio is rebalanced at regular intervals, such as annually or quarterly, irrespective of asset price movements. Threshold or price-based rebalancing. A limit is set on how far the portfolio can deviate from your desired target mix, such as a 60/40 stocks-to-bonds mix.

What is the 10 5 3 rule of investment? ›

1. Understanding the 10-5-3 Rule. The 10-5-3 rule is a simple rule of thumb in the world of investment that suggests average annual returns on different asset classes: stocks, bonds, and cash. According to this rule, stocks can potentially return 10% annually, bonds 5%, and cash 3%.

What is the best frequency to rebalance a portfolio? ›

With that in mind, let's look at how often you should rebalance if you use time-based rebalancing. The most common time frame that people use is annual rebalancing. They go in once a year to clean up their portfolio.

What is the Bogle recommended portfolio? ›

Bogle recommended allocating between stocks and bonds based on an investors age and risk tolerance. Younger investors may favor a higher stock allocation, while older investors closer to retirement may shift more assets to bonds. Bogle suggested a reasonable starting point is allocating 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds.

What is the Bogleheads 3 fund portfolio? ›

A three-fund portfolio is a portfolio which uses only basic asset classes — usually a domestic stock "total market" index fund, an international stock "total market" index fund and a bond "total market" index fund.

What is the Bogleheads method? ›

The Bogleheads approach begins with an investor deciding on percentage allocations to various asset classes, such as U.S. stocks, international stocks, U.S. bonds, etc. The desired allocations are then implemented using low-cost vehicles which are true to the targeted asset classes.

How many funds make an ideal portfolio? ›

Unless you are very well versed with the markets and have expert knowledge about mutual funds, a good rule of thumb would be to own: Large Cap Mutual Funds: Up to 2. Maybe 3 at best. Beyond that, it doesn't make sense as there will be a great overlap in the shares owned by your mutual funds.

Is 3% a good investment return? ›

General ROI: A positive ROI is generally considered good, with a normal ROI of 5-7% often seen as a reasonable expectation. However, a strong general ROI is something greater than 10%. Return on Stocks: On average, a ROI of 7% after inflation is often considered good, based on the historical returns of the market.

How many funds should be in a balanced portfolio? ›

So, what's the ideal number of funds? Well, there is no right or wrong answer. It can depend on a number of factors including the number of funds you're comfortable monitoring in your portfolio, your investment objectives and risk appetite.

Are 3 funds better than 1 best strategy for total US stock market exposure? ›

If advisors built exposure to the U.S. equity market using three funds instead of using a single ticker, they would have gained an additional $4,566 over the past 21 years. This assumes weighting the three funds according to market capitalization.

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