Prepayment Risk (2024)

The risk associated with prematurely paying back the principal amount (or a portion) outstanding on a loan

Over 1.8 million professionals use CFI to learn accounting, financial analysis, modeling and more. Start with a free account to explore 20+ always-free courses and hundreds of finance templates and cheat sheets.

What is Prepayment Risk?

Prepayment risk refers to the risk that the principal amount (or a portion of the principal amount) outstanding on a loan is prematurely paid back. In other words, prepayment risk is the risk of early repayment of a loan by a borrower.

Prepayment Risk (1)

Understanding Prepayment Risk

Prepayment risk may sound counter-intuitive in that repaying a loan in a shorter period of time is considered a risk. However, to a lender, it may be preferable to have a loan outstanding for a longer period of time. To understand prepayment risk, we introduce an example.

Consider a loan with a face value of $1,000. The loan has a 10% interest rate on the face value of the loan. The borrower is to make annual interest payments over a period of three years. As such, the lender would be receiving $1,300 over the life of the loan. The loan’s payment schedule is illustrated below:

Prepayment Risk (2)

Next, assume that the borrower has the option to repay the face value amount before the end of three years. In this scenario, the borrower can theoretically repay the face value of $1,000 at the end of Year 1 and end up not having to pay interest in Years 2 and 3 (due to the face value being repaid at the end of Year 1). In doing so, the lender would only end up receiving $100 in profit on the loan. The payment schedule in this scenario is illustrated below:

Prepayment Risk (3)

As such, prepayment risk is the risk that the borrower repays the outstanding principal amount (or a portion of the outstanding principal amount) prematurely and, in turn, causes the lender to receive less in interest payments.

Prepayment Risk in Mortgage-backed Securities

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) commonly face prepayment risk. A mortgage-backed security is made up of a bundle of home loans that investors can purchase. Investors in mortgage-backed securities collect interest payments made by the underlying home loans. As such, when the homeowners repay their loans earlier than expected, investors in mortgage-backed securities face the risk of having lower future interest payments generated from the underlying home loans.

To mitigate the prepayment risk faced by investors in mortgage-backed securities, prepayment penalties are commonly imposed on homeowners who repay their home loans earlier than expected.

Interest Rates and Prepayment Risk

Although there are numerous factors that can cause a borrower to repay their loan earlier than expected, the driving factor tends to be changes in interest rates.

For example, consider a homeowner that takes out a floating-rate home loan (i.e., the interest rate on the home loan increases as market interest rate increases and vice versa).

  • If interest rates decrease, the homeowner will have an incentive to refinance the floating-rate home loan into a fixed-rate home loan. In this scenario, the potential for refinancing the home loan will increase the prepayment risk for the original lender.
  • If interest rates increase, the homeowner will have an incentive to repay the home loan more quickly to avoid higher future interest payments. In this scenario, making principal payments earlier will reduce future interest payments and increase the prepayment risk for the lender.

As such, changes in interest rates play a key role in increasing the prepayment risk faced by lenders.

Practical Example

A homeowner takes out a mortgage at an interest rate of 15%. At the time of taking out a mortgage, the market interest rate was 15%. Two years later, the market interest rate is 10%. Explain the prepayment risk, if any, faced by the lender.

Solution: The lender faces prepayment risk on the mortgage due to the change in market interest rates from 15% to 10%. The homeowner has an incentive, assuming that there are no prepayment penalties or refinancing fees, to refinance the mortgage from an interest rate of 15% to an interest rate closer to the current market interest rate of 10%. In doing so, the lender will forego the interest payments (at the higher interest rate) that would have been made by the homeowner over the life of the mortgage.

Additional Resources

CFI offers the Commercial Banking & Credit Analyst (CBCA®) certification program for those looking to take their careers to the next level. To keep learning and developing your knowledge base, please explore the additional relevant CFI resources below:

Prepayment Risk (2024)

FAQs

How do you deal with prepayment risk? ›

To guard against prepayment risk, the enterprises use written option derivatives. Written options: The enterprises pay a premium to a financial institution in exchange for the option to have it pay them if interest rates fall below an agreed-upon rate.

What are the risks of prepayment? ›

Prepayment risk is the risk involved with the premature return of principal on a fixed-income security. When prepayment occurs, investors must reinvest at current market interest rates, which are usually substantially lower. Prepayment risk mostly affects corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

How to measure prepayment risk? ›

A conditional prepayment rate (CPR) estimates the likely prepayment rate for a pool of loans, such as a mortgage backed security. The higher the CPR, the more prepayments are expected and the less interest the investor is likely to receive in total. This is called prepayment risk.

What are the two components of prepayment risk? ›

Prepayment risk, part of time tranching, may be divided into contraction and extension risk. Contraction risk occurs when prepayments happen more quickly than anticipated due to a decline in interest rates.

What is prepayment risk also known as? ›

In the primary market, lenders are mainly focused on contraction risk (also known as prepayment risk) which is the risk that a borrower will pay early and thus reduce the interest paid to a lender over the life of a loan.

How do you handle prepayments in accounting? ›

In business, a prepaid expense is recorded as an asset on the balance sheet that results from a business making advance payments for goods or services to be received in the future. Prepaid expenses are initially recorded as assets, but their value is expensed over time onto the income statement.

How do you hedge prepayment risk? ›

Hedging Strategies → Lenders and institutional investors can also rely on more specialized financing instruments, such as interest rate swaps and derivatives, to further hedge against the risk of prepayment.

What is the prepayment rule? ›

What is a Prepayment? Generally, a prepaid expense is deductible over the eligible service period, or 10 years if that is less, rather than being immediately deductible.

What is prepayment example? ›

Some examples of prepayment include: Purchasing goods or services as prepaid assets: you might purchase office supplies in bulk, for instance, and pay for them upfront. Repaying the interest on a business loan: you might take out a loan, and make an upfront payment to cover the first few months' worth of interest.

Is prepayment risk the same as reinvestment risk? ›

Prepayment risk is similar to reinvestment risk where the issuer repays bonds prior to maturity. For example, in a mortgage-backed security, underlying collateral (home mortgages) may be repaid ahead of schedule.

What does prepayment mean? ›

Definition of 'prepayment'

A prepayment is a payment that you make before you receive goods or services, or before a debt is due. If a borrower makes prepayments, the loan balance declines more rapidly than would otherwise be possible. During periods of rising interest rates, the rate of prepayments generally declines.

Why do lenders not like prepayments? ›

When they drop, debt issuers have a strong incentive to refinance their debt at lower prevailing rates. Not so with lenders. They dislike prepayments as they lose the remaining interest payments on the loan. They can also incur additional costs as they rebalance their portfolio of long and short-term loans.

What is the opposite of prepayment risk? ›

Whereas contraction risk happens when borrowers pre-pay a loan, shortening its duration, extension risk occurs when they do the opposite—they defer loan payments, increasing the length of the loan.

How many types of prepayment are there? ›

They can be categorized into two groups: Complete Prepayments and Partial Prepayments. A complete prepayment involves payment for the full balance of a liability before its official due date, whereas a partial prepayment involves payment for only a part of a liability's balance.

How to hedge prepayment risk? ›

One of the best ways to hedge mortgage prepayment risk, which is nonlinear, is with interest rate options. Due to the nonlinear profile of interest rate options, their payoff profiles (valuations) will match up better against other interest rate derivatives that could be used for hedging downside risk.

How do I get around prepayment penalty? ›

One option is to try negotiating a lower fee, but the best way to avoid the penalty altogether is to switch to a different loan type or lender. Since not all lenders charge the same prepayment penalty, make sure to shop around and compare lenders to find the best mortgage option for you.

Which of the following approaches redistributes prepayment risk? ›

Time tranching in securitizations is a method designed to manage the unpredictability associated with prepayment risk, which arises when borrowers change their repayment patterns. This approach involves creating bond classes with distinct expected maturities to redistribute the prepayment risk among them.

How do you deal with credit risk? ›

7 tips for effective credit management and avoid business risks
  1. Establish a direct contact with the company beyond the salesperson.
  2. Investigate the company.
  3. Stay informed by talking with your peers.
  4. Insure your business transactions.
  5. Do not grant credit overruns easily.
  6. Retain or request proof.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Annamae Dooley

Last Updated:

Views: 6725

Rating: 4.4 / 5 (45 voted)

Reviews: 92% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Annamae Dooley

Birthday: 2001-07-26

Address: 9687 Tambra Meadow, Bradleyhaven, TN 53219

Phone: +9316045904039

Job: Future Coordinator

Hobby: Archery, Couponing, Poi, Kite flying, Knitting, Rappelling, Baseball

Introduction: My name is Annamae Dooley, I am a witty, quaint, lovely, clever, rich, sparkling, powerful person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.