Rebalancing: A Market Timing Strategy That Works (2024)

Rewarding experiences often occur just once a year – no more, no less.These include, to name a few:

  • Birthdays
  • July 4th fireworks
  • Rebalancing

Let’s skip to number 3 because mostpeople are likely unaware of the benefits from thissimple yet lucrative aspect of successful investing.

What is rebalancing?

To begin, determine your long-term financial goals and develop aglobally diversified asset class portfolio that supports reaching them.For example, if your investments must grow significantly in orderto comfortably sustain annual withdrawals throughout retirement,sufficient exposure to stocks may need to be maintained.

Once the proper asset allocation has been established for yourportfolio, each year some market segments will do better thanothers which will cause the original allocation to get out of whack.Rebalancing the portfolio merely gets it back aligned. This willinvolve selling funds (if you now own a higher percentage of thetotal than targeted) or buying funds (if it’s now lower). That’s it. Manyinvestors find January to be a good month to establish disciplinedannual rebalancing since they will know their portfolio is allocatedas intended at the start of every New Year.

Won’t that require selling some of my recent winners andbuying underperformers?

Absolutely, which is the whole point -- regularly selling high andbuying low. What drives profits for businesses applies equally to yourinvestments. That’s why it is also important to avoid costly funds aswell as taxes generated by frequent trading since every dollar spenton costs and taxes is a dollar less earned from the investments. Toillustrate, suppose your asset allocation is currently 60% stocks and40% bonds. Then, after a good year for equities, the allocation driftshigher to 70% stocks and 30% bonds. Rebalancing would entailselling some of the stock exposure and using the proceeds to buybonds, with the goal being to get back to the strategic 60/40 allocation.

What are the benefits?

Essentially, disciplined portfolio rebalancing takes the emotion out ofmarket timing decisions (that are often misinformed) in exchangefor a more proven behavior. The portfolio will not wander off fromintended allocations which helps contain risk exposure and alsoleads to more reliable results. Regularly selling securities for gainscontributes to a positive investment return while providing proceedsto buy more of funds that are relatively cheaper, thereby contributingto additional future gains. Plus, the portfolio is kept at a risk level theinvestor is likely more comfortable with.

As a bonus, you’ll usually end upwith more money over the longrun which increases the rewardfor saving and investing. Studieswe conducted for rolling 20-yearperiods since 1979 with a multi assetclass portfolio showed that annual rebalancing led to a higher ending total andlower risk/volatility about 80% of the time comparedto equivalent portfolios left unattended. The averageincrease was more than 1/3 of the original balance.

In other words, on average, regularly rebalancing a starting $500,000portfolio grew the eventual balance after 20 years an additional$150,000 vs. one not rebalanced.*

Step by step recap:

  • First: Develop a financial plan and investment asset allocationthat will reliably achieve your long-term goals.
  • Second: Stick with the strategy despite periodic market volatilitywhich is unavoidable and unpredictable.
  • Third: Utilize low cost, tax efficient funds to keep more money inyour pocket.
  • Fourth: Rebalance annually.

Is this strategy easy to manage and commonly done?

In a word, no. Developing an intelligently diversified, low-costinvestment portfolio that will reliably achieve your long-term financialgoals can be quite a task. Furthermore, not only is remembering torebalance the same time each year challenging, actually sellingfunds that have been your best winners and then using the gainsto buy recent losers is understandably more than most folks canstomach. After all, when stocks plummeted 50% during the recent2008 financial crisis, were you eager to load up and buy more?That’s what the appropriate professional investment manager will do,however. Each year, rain or shine, the portfolio will be rebalancedback to its strategic allocation in order to maximize the probabilityof reaching your cherished long-term goals.

*Analysis: Canandaigua National Bank & Trust; Hypothetical example based on lumpsum returns of an account starting at $100,000, weighted evenly among the S&P 500,Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Value, U.S. REITs, MSCI EAFE, World ex-U.S. Value, and U.S.Gov’t/Credit Intermediate Bonds.

This material is provided for general information purposes only. Investments and insurance products are not FDIC insured, not bank deposits, not obligations of, or guaranteed by Canandaigua National Bank & Trust or any of its affiliates. Investments are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future investment results. Before making any investment decision, please consult your legal, tax or financial advisor. Investments and services may be offered through affiliate companies.

Tax information presented is not to be considered as tax advice and cannot be used for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties. Canandaigua National Bank & Trust does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. Please consult your personal tax advisor, attorney, or accountant for advice on these matters.

Rebalancing: A Market Timing Strategy That Works (2024)

FAQs

Rebalancing: A Market Timing Strategy That Works? ›

It states that rebalancing between assets should occur only if an asset or category has drifted from its original target by an absolute percentage of 5% or a relative of 25% whichever is less.

What is the 5 25 rule for rebalancing? ›

It states that rebalancing between assets should occur only if an asset or category has drifted from its original target by an absolute percentage of 5% or a relative of 25% whichever is less.

What is the optimal rebalancing strategy? ›

In wealth management, an optimal rebalancing strategy is needed which strikes a balance between transaction costs and tracking errors. Popular static rebalancing strategies found in financial textbooks include buy-and-hold, periodic, and tolerance band rebalancing (Qian, 2020).

What is a perfect market timing strategy? ›

A perfect market timing strategy needs to know, with certainty, the future returns of the assets that are eligible for investment. Armed with this information, the perfect market timing strategy always chooses the highest returning asset to invest in.

What is an example of a rebalancing strategy? ›

Percentage-of-Portfolio Rebalancing

For example, an allocation strategy might include the requirement to hold 30% in emerging market equities, 30% in domestic blue chips, and 40% in government bonds with a corridor of +/- 5% for each asset class.

What is the 10 5 3 rule of investment? ›

Understanding the 10-5-3 Rule

The 10-5-3 rule is a simple rule of thumb in the world of investment that suggests average annual returns on different asset classes: stocks, bonds, and cash. According to this rule, stocks can potentially return 10% annually, bonds 5%, and cash 3%.

What is the 1234 financial rule? ›

One simple rule of thumb I tend to adopt is going by the 4-3-2-1 ratios to budgeting. This ratio allocates 40% of your income towards expenses, 30% towards housing, 20% towards savings and investments and 10% towards insurance.

What is the rebalancing bot strategy? ›

What is the Rebalancing Bot? The Rebalancing Bot will automatically adjust your portfolio position in the token combination of your choice. By buying low and selling high, your strategy can maintain the same ratio of asset values through rebalancing at preset intervals or thresholds.

Is it better to rebalance quarterly or annually? ›

Research from Vanguard shows there is no optimal rebalancing strategy. Whether a portfolio is rebalanced monthly, quarterly, or annually, portfolio returns are not markedly different.

What is the dynamic rebalancing strategy? ›

The use of Dynamic Rebalancing satisfies two key objectives: 1) maintaining the target allocation at a low cost and with minimal investment disruption, and 2) adding incremental value from being a liquidity provider and harvesting short-term volatility noise on a frequent basis.

What does Warren Buffett say about timing the market? ›

As Warren Buffett once said, “The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.” The short-term direction of stock prices is close to random. But why? It all comes down to human psychology and the relationship between markets and volatility. Time in the market beats market timing every time.

Why market timing doesn t work? ›

Market timing is difficult because many different investors are using their own strategies and trading on their own time, so to speak. This can cause delays in markets or confusion when an otherwise clear move might present itself and make timing difficult.

Is market timing better than buy-and-hold strategy? ›

Research shows that long-term buy-and-hold tends to outperform, where market timing remains very difficult. Much of the market's greatest returns or declines are concentrated in a short time frame.

Is rebalancing effective? ›

Rebalancing is an important component for successful multi-asset investing and ensures client portfolios remain within the desired risk profile over time. There are several ways advisers can implement rebalancing, including time-only, threshold-only and time and threshold.

Is rebalancing strategic or tactical? ›

The portfolio is periodically rebalanced to maintain the strategic asset allocation. Strategic is the most passive type of asset allocation. Tactical asset allocation makes short-term adjustments to the asset mix based on the current risk/return profiles of each asset class, given the current market conditions.

What does rebalancing really achieve? ›

Rebalancing a portfolio means adjusting the weightings of the different asset classes in your investment portfolio. This is achieved by buying or selling assets, which changes the weighting of a specific asset class.

How do I avoid taxes when rebalancing? ›

Here are six tactics for rebalancing a portfolio in a more tax-efficient way:
  1. Start with tax-advantaged accounts. ...
  2. Re-direct cash flows in taxable accounts. ...
  3. Consider cost basis. ...
  4. Explore charitable giving and annual gifting. ...
  5. Keep in mind the timing of fund distributions when rebalancing near year-end.
May 12, 2022

What is the best frequency to rebalance a portfolio? ›

The most common time frame that people use is annual rebalancing. They go in once a year to clean up their portfolio.

What is the 5 25 rule for mutual funds? ›

The “25” portion of the rule refers to the smaller asset classes in the portfolio, for example, those chunks that may make up only 5-10% of the portfolio. This refers to a change in the asset class that is a relative 25% of that asset class.

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