Are REITs a good investment in a recession?
REITs allow investors to pool their money and purchase real estate properties. By law, a REIT must pay at least 90% of its income to its shareholders, providing investors with a passive income option that can be helpful during recessions.
REITs with business interests in defensive industries can be attractive recession investments. Dec. 9, 2022, at 4:07 p.m. REITs that operate in the health care or infrastructure sectors might be more durable thanks to the evergreen nature of their tenants.
The generous dividend payments enjoyed by REIT investors may look particularly attractive moving forward. With rate cuts on the horizon, dividend yields for REITs may look more favorable than yields on fixed-income securities and money market accounts.
Give us cheap REITs (real estate investment trusts) because they are likely to rise as rates fall. Yes, that's what happens in a recession. Investors flood into fixed income. Interest rates fall, and REITsâwhich tend to move opposite ratesârise.
With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.
Risks of investing in REITs include higher dividend taxes, sensitivity to interest rates, and exposure to specific property trends.
Most market observers believe the Fed is at or near the end of its run of raising interest rates and many believe it's possible that the Fed may even begin cutting rates as soon as the second half of 2024. Industry association Nareit's 2024 outlook points to cautious optimism that the REIT recovery could be underway.
A lot of REIT investors focus too way much on the dividend yield. They think that a high dividend yield implies that a REIT is cheap and a good investment opportunity. In reality, it is often the opposite, and the dividend does not say much, if anything, about the valuation of a REIT.
The overall business performance of the S-REIT sector has been lacklustre and some segments of the industry have not been able to recover to pre-COVID levels, either due to a change in business dynamics or due to an inflationary environment. Office REITs have faced challenges due to the new work-from-home (WFH) trends.
After looking at correlation patterns and historical data, it appears that returns from REITs vary during different interest rate periods, but for the most part have shown a positive correlation during increasing interest rates.
Can REITs go to zero?
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
Therefore, if rates begin to rise then REIT cash flows will decline at a time when discount rates are rising. They fear the end result will be capital losses that offset the higher distribution yield and result in negative total returns.
Investors can benefit from allocating as little as 5% to REITs. Investor confidence in real estate reached unprecedented levels in 2022, owing to home price appreciation and higher yields for other asset classes, such as REITs, in low-rate environments.
Investing in REITs can add some diversification to your portfolio and give you access to passive income, liquidity and excellent long-term returns. However, taxes can be more expensive with REITs compared to other investment options, and there are still risks involved with the real estate market.
There is no set lifetime for the trust in most cases. Investors who buy publicly traded shares in a REIT can usually buy as much or little as they like and dispose of the shares when they want or need to. However, if an investor buys a non-traded or private REIT, the investment should be considered illiquid.
Historically, REITs are one of the better-performing sectors during inflationary periods. We can see this in the following image. You'll notice REITs are in the upper right area, showing they are outperformers during periods of high inflation.
Because you're smart, you may be asking yourself, What happens if the short-term interest rate goes up? Any increase in the short-term interest rate eats into the profitâso if it doubled in our example above, there'd be no profit left. And if it goes up even higher, the REIT loses money.
It depends on many factors, including the investor's individual preferences, risk tolerance, and timeline. If you're looking for something steady that requires little to no work on your end, REITs are a good option. But if you like more control and freedom, a direct investment may be a better option.
Perhaps the biggest advantage of buying REIT shares rather than rental properties is simplicity. REIT investing allows for sharing in value appreciation and rental income without being involved in the hassle of actually buying, managing and selling property. Diversification is another benefit.
What this means is that REITs are ideal borrowers for banks. They are exactly who they want to do business with because they know that the risk of a REIT bankruptcy is extremely low. Just look at the past. There have been very few REIT bankruptcies over the past 50+ years.
Why are REITs struggling?
Higher interest rates make it much more expensive to service debt. Investors are demanding higher yields on their stocks, which pushes down share prices. And lower share prices, in turn, make it harder for REITs to issue new equity to fund additional property purchases.
REITs have outperformed stocks on 20-to-50-year horizons. Most REITs are less volatile than the S&P 500, with some only half as volatile as the market at large. Several individual REITs delivered significantly higher returns than the S&P 500.
Like rent checks earned every month from rental properties, several of the worlds' top billionaire investors have been scooping up monthly dividends from REITs that specialize in different niches of the property market, including shopping centers, office buildings, distribution centers and warehouses, recreational ...
To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.
The REIT market is projected to see 2.6% year-over-year growth in 2023. The REIT market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% from 2022 to 2027. The market size is estimated to increase by $333.01 billion from 2022 to 2027.
