Is Tesla a good long-term stock?
Analyst Forecasts
Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.96 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be a around a 5% decline vs. last year's $3.12. That was a 23% decline vs. 2022. Analyst project a solid increase in 2025 to $4.13 a share.
Tesla (TSLA) stock is down more than 30% so far in 2024, but Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood thinks "now is not the time to run for the hills." In fact, Ark has been buying the stock and thinks it could rise to $2,000 per share in the next five years, representing an increase of more than 1,000% from today's levels.
The manager of the Baron Focused Growth Fund expects Tesla's stock to reach $1,200 by 2030, up 550% from current levels, citing its strong brand. Tesla and Musk's privately held SpaceX were the fund's largest holdings as of December 31.
Tesla (TSLA) has had a terrible start to 2024. But Tesla stock hasn't become significantly cheaper, by a key metric. Often when a stock sells off hard, investors and Wall Street analysts will tout it as a buy, citing much-cheaper valuations.
How Much Has Tesla Grown in the Past 10 Years? As of March 28, 2024, the price of Tesla's stock was $175.79. Ten years ago, at market close on March 28, 2014, Tesla's stock was trading at $14.16 per share. This means that $10,000 invested in Tesla in March 2014 would be worth about $124,145 today.
TSLA Stock 12 Months Forecast
Based on 35 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Tesla in the last 3 months. The average price target is $198.72 with a high forecast of $320.00 and a low forecast of $23.53. The average price target represents a 13.04% change from the last price of $175.79.
The newest price target for Tesla shares for Tesla came in April 2023, with a call for the stock price to hit $2,000 in 2027 and the company's market capitalization to hit $4.4 trillion. The bear-and-bull case for Tesla stock from Ark Invest are $1,400 and $2,500, respectively, for the same time period.
The S&P 500 index had an average annual return of 11.13% between 1973 and 2023. If Tesla stock were to grow at this average rate until 2040, TSLA stock would be worth $1,056 in 2040. This would be about 2.5x the stock's current all-time high price of $407.
Tesla (TSLA)
With 2023 in the rearview mirror, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings below 2023's level, signaling another year of negative growth for this growth stock. Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.97 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be a around a 5% decline vs.
How much $10 000 invested in Tesla stock 10 years ago is worth now?
If you invested $10,000 with founder Elon Musk 10 years ago, your stake would be worth $2.1 million now. That works out to a more than 70% average annual return. The same $10,000 put into the S&P 500 during that time grew just 274% to $37,376.
Is Tesla stock a Buy, Sell or Hold? Tesla stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is and is based on 45 buy ratings, 33 hold ratings, and 15 sell ratings.
When it comes to the Tesla stock price prediction for 2050, Tesla stock would be trading at $4,700 in 2050 if it were to grow at the same 11.8% average rate as the S&P 500. If TSLA were to grow at the same rate as the Nasdaq 100's 17.5% average annual return, it would be worth $18,900 by 2050.
“Tesla first quarter 2024 [is] likely the bottom,” wrote New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu in a Thursday report. He expects first-quarter deliveries to come in around 420,000 units, but also expects delivery growth and a recovery in profit margins later in 2024. Investors hope that's the case.
As of 2024-04-04, the Fair Value of Tesla Inc (TSLA) is 117.74 USD. This value is based on the Peter Lynch's Fair Value formula. With the current market price of 168.38 USD, the upside of Tesla Inc is -30.1%.
Wednesday's drop was triggered by a Wall Street analyst who slashed his sales and earnings estimates and price target. He sees too many headwinds to stay neutral on the stock. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan is the bearish analyst. On Wednesday, he downgraded Tesla stock to the equivalent of Sell from Hold.
With all of this in mind — considering a $251.34 share price at the time of publication — an initial $1,000 investment on June 22, 2012, would be worth more than $1.73 million today. Tesla has revolutionized the electric vehicle market in 20 years.
| Period | Period Low | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 101.81 +65.04% on 01/06/23 | -193.50 (-53.52%) since 04/01/22 |
| 3-Year | 101.81 +63.67% on 01/02/23 | -59.04 (-26.16%) since 04/05/21 |
| 5-Year | 11.80 +1,312.18% on 06/03/19 | +148.78 (+833.68%) since 04/08/19 |
| 10-Year | 9.40 +1,672.03% on 02/01/16 | +152.77 (+1,102.29%) since 04/01/14 |
A $1 investment in the company five years ago would leave you with $10.98 today. It gets progressively worse from there. As those numbers show, investing in Tesla over the last couple of years would have been a losing bet — and in the case of a year ago, a losing bet of more than one-third.
| Ticker | Company | Performance (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | 224.84% |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc | 94.66% |
| SOUN | SoundHound AI Inc | 91.67% |
| UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc | 66.26% |
What is the long term outlook for Tesla?
While we were surprised by the decline, we assumed Tesla would see slower growth in 2024 and 2025 as the market for its luxury vehicles approaches saturation. In the longer term, we still forecast around 5 million deliveries by 2030, largely driven by the affordable vehicle Tesla aims to launch by the end of next year.
| Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
|---|---|
| Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
| Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
| Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) | 255.3% |
| Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) | 340.6% |
Wood valued Tesla at $2,000 a share in April 2023. That target was up from her 2022 update valuing Tesla stock at about $1,500. The lack of a 2024 target bump is one sign things aren't going as well as hoped.
Amazon has a conensus rating of Strong Buy which is based on 41 buy ratings, 0 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings. The average price target for Amazon is $209.74. This is based on 41 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months.
Historical daily share price chart and data for Tesla since 2010 adjusted for splits and dividends. The latest closing stock price for Tesla as of April 04, 2024 is 171.11. The all-time high Tesla stock closing price was 409.97 on November 04, 2021.
