Should I sell my stocks before a recession?
Losses aren't real until you sell. Some investors believe that by selling during a downturn, they can wait out difficult market conditions and reinvest when the market looks better. However, timing the market is extremely difficult, and even professionals who attempt to do this fail more often than not.
Losses aren't real until you sell. Some investors believe that by selling during a downturn, they can wait out difficult market conditions and reinvest when the market looks better. However, timing the market is extremely difficult, and even professionals who attempt to do this fail more often than not.
Cash is an important asset when it comes to a recession. After all, if you do end up in a situation where you need to pull from your assets, it helps to have a dedicated emergency fund to fall back on, especially if you experience a layoff.
Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss. Cash doesn't grow in value; in fact, inflation erodes its purchasing power over time. Cashing out after the market tanks means that you bought high and are selling low—the world's worst investment strategy.
Seek Out Core Sector Stocks.
So if you want to insulate yourself during a recession partly with stocks, consider investing in the healthcare, utilities and consumer goods sectors. People are still going to spend money on medical care, household items, electricity and food, regardless of the state of the economy.
There are many reasons why it's better for investors to not sell into a bear market and stay in for the long term. This is why it's important to understand your risk tolerance, your time horizon, and how the market works during downturns.
Investors seeking stability in a recession often turn to investment-grade bonds. These are debt securities issued by financially strong corporations or government entities. They offer regular interest payments and a smaller risk of default, relative to bonds with lower ratings.
What Are the Biggest Risks to Avoid During a Recession? Many types of financial risks are heightened in a recession. This means that you're better off avoiding some risks that you might take in better economic times—such as co-signing a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt.
Single earners: Put aside 6 months or more
Recessions typically go hand in hand with higher unemployment, and finding a new job may not happen quickly. Catherine Valega, a CFP and wealth consultant at Green Bee Advisory in Winchester, Massachusetts, suggests keeping 12 to 24 months of expenses in cash.
Riskier assets like stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while gold and U.S. Treasuries appreciate. Shares of large companies with ample, steady cash flows and dividends tend to outperform economically sensitive stocks in downturns.
When should you sell out of a stock?
Change in Fundamentals
Sometimes investors may need to sell a stock when the company's fundamentals change for the worse. For example, investors may begin unwinding their position if a company's quarterly earnings have been steadily decreasing or performing poorly compared to its industry peers.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
If certain shares have consistently underperformed with little hope of recovery, it may be wise to sell them. Selling under-performers can free up capital that could be better invested elsewhere and allow you to use capital losses to offset gains for tax purposes.
While the stock market will generally decline during a recession, there are always going to be some companies that perform well. This is why it's so important to have a diversified portfolio – because even if some of your stocks are taking a hit, others may be doing just fine.
| Company | Symbol | Average % stock ch. last five recessions |
|---|---|---|
| Halliburton | (HAL) | -40.1% |
| Boeing | (BA) | -33.4 |
| Baker Hughes | (BKR) | -31.2 |
| Schlumberger | (SLB) | -30.8 |
Healthy large cap stocks also tend to hold up relatively well during downturns. Investing in broad funds can help reduce recession risk through diversification. Bonds and dividend stocks can provide income to cushion investors against downturns.
In almost every case, the S&P 500 has bottomed out roughly four months before the end of a recession. The index typically hits a high seven months before the start of a recession. During the last four recessions since 1990, the S&P 500 declined an average of 8.8%, according to data from CFRA Research.
- Cash Is King During a Recession. ...
- Own Defensive Stocks in a Recession. ...
- Use Dollar-Cost Averaging. ...
- Buy Quality Assets During a Recession. ...
- Avoid Growth Stocks During a Recession. ...
- Invest in Dividend Stocks. ...
- Consider Actively Managed Funds. ...
- Bonds and Uncorrelated Assets.
Generally, money kept in a bank account is safe—even during a recession. However, depending on factors such as your balance amount and the type of account, your money might not be completely protected.
Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.
What is the best thing to do with your money in a recession?
- 1) Reassess your expenses and increase your savings.
- 2) Invest in things that increase in value over time.
- 3) Diversify your investments.
- 4) Leverage tax advantages.
Equity Sectors
On the negative side, energy and infrastructure stocks have been the hardest-hit in recent recessions. Companies in these sectors are acutely sensitive to swings in demand. Financials stocks also can suffer during recessions because of a rising default rate and shrinking net interest margins.
- Create a budget.
- Track spending.
- Build an emergency fund of three to six months' worth of living expenses.
- Reduce high-interest debt like credit cards.
- Pay bills on time to keep your credit up.
- Seek additional personal income through freelance opportunities or side hustles.
It will give them the funds to buy stocks or other assets during the decline. Because of how precious cash can be during times of financial stress, many have said that cash is king. The phrase means that having liquid funds available can be vital because of the flexibility it provides during a crisis.
Banking regulation has changed over the last 100 years to provide more protection to consumers. You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.
